一本教会你“做对”题的6级阅读书 day13 passage3
Passage 3 The Secret of Stability
宏观调控与经济危机 《新闻周刊》
One year ago, the world seemed as if it might be coming apart.
The global financial system,
which had fueled a great expansion of capitalism and trade across the world,
was crumbling. All the certainties of the age of globalization
about the virtues of free markets, trade,
and technology were being called into question.
Faith in the American model had collapsed. The financial industry had crumbled.
Pundits whose bearishness had been proved predicted we were doomed to a long,
painful bust, with continual failures in sector after sector,
country after country.
People predicted that these economic shocks would lead to political instability
and violence in the worst-hit countries.
At his confirmation hearing in February,
[01:02]the new U.S. director of national intelligence, Adm. Dennis Blair,
[01:08]cautioned that "the financial crisis and global recession
[01:14]are likely to produce a wave of economic crises in emerging-market nations
[01:21]over the next year."
[01:24]Of one thing everyone was sure: nothing would ever be the same again.
[01:29]Not the financial industry, not capitalism, not globalization.
[01:35]One year later, how much has the world really changed? Well,
[01:40]Wall Street is home to two fewer investment banks.
[01:44]Some regional banks have gone bust. Severe problems remain,
[01:50]like high unemployment in the West,
[01:53]and we face new problems caused by responses to the crisis oaring debt
[01:59]and fears of inflation. But overall,
[02:04]things look nothing like they did in the 1930s.
[02:08]The predictions of economic and political collapse have not materialized at all.
[02:15]A key measure of fear and fragility is the ability of poor
[02:20]and unstable countries to borrow money on the debt markets.
[02:25]So consider this: the sovereign bonds of tottering Pakistan
[02:31]have returned 168 percent so far this year.
[02:35]All this doesn't add up to a recovery yet,
[02:39]but it does reflect a return to some level of normalcy.
[02:44]This revival did not happen because markets managed to stabilize themselves
[02:50]on their own. Rather, governments,
[02:53]having learned the lessons of the Great Depression,
[02:57]were determined not to repeat the same mistakes once this crisis hit.
[03:03]By massively expanding state support for the economy
[03:08]through central banks and national treasuries
[03:11]they buffered the worst of the damage.
[03:15]The extensive social safety nets
[03:17]that have been established across the industrialized world
[03:22]also cushioned the pain felt by many. Times are still tough,
[03:28]but things are nowhere near as bad as in the 1930s,
[03:33]when governments played a tiny role in national economies.
[03:38]It's true that the massive state interventions of the past year
[03:43]may be fueling some new bubbles:
[03:46]the cheap cash and government guarantees provided to banks, companies,
[03:51]and consumers have fueled some irrational enthusiasm in stock and bond markets.
[03:58]Yet these rallies also demonstrate the return of confidence,
[04:03]and confidence is a very powerful economic force.